Stocks quoted in this article:
Ask and you shall receive. The perma-buyers of All Things Volatility got a nice little blip this week.
Here's the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) from Wednesday's regular session through the overnight and into Thursday's lunch:
Chart courtesy of TD Ameritrade
After a month of basically 0.5% ranges every day, we saw a drop of about 3% from the Wednesday morning high to Thursday pre-market. If you're scoring at home, SPY ranges of 3% per day would imply a "fair" CBOE Market Volatility Index (INDEXCBOE:VIX) around 48.
It begs the question: Did the recent relative strength in VIX predict this bump in the road? I apologize for picking out one tweet to represent a school of thought… but I'm fairly confident interpretations like this are common:
So big takeaway from last two days is extreme intraday volatility $VIX... typically precedes massive daily volatility $SPX
I have no idea where "extreme intraday volatility" ends and "massive daily volatility" begins. I mean, isn't that just two ways of describing the same thing? The market moved in pretty violent fashion for under a day.
But whatever. Another take is that the volatility of the VIX, or the VIX itself, picked up ahead of the volatility of the market. And that's not really accurate. Here's VIX from Wednesday into Thursday lunch (remember, it's just a calculation; it doesn't "trade" after hours):
Chart courtesy of TD Ameritrade
It pretty much moved concurrent with the market. The sell-off began at about 11 a.m. ET Wednesday… as did the VIX lift. The market made the lows in the pre-market, but wasn't much higher at the regular open. VIX peaked around the open then dropped as the market strengthened.
I'm not real sure there's much takeaway here other than the fact that as the market gets ugly, VIX goes up.
Back to the original question, though: Did the overall relative VIX strength portend this? That's really a stretch, in my humble opinion. In this particular case, the VIX has held well for about a month. The market rallied pretty much every day, but then had this Wednesday blip. So, if VIX was right about yesterday, wasn't it then wrong about pretty much the last 20 trading days?
How about the VIX futures? They've been up-sloping and generally wrong for about 21 months now. And they're still not right; they need a way more permanent uptick in volatility to pan out for their owners.
Look, everybody's anticipating, worrying about, or anxiously awaiting some sort of lasting pullback to the rally. I just think it's grasping at straws to somehow find the volatility markets so prescient as to see that moment first.
Disclaimer: The views represented on this blog are those of the individual author only, and do not necessarily represent the views of Schaeffer's Investment Research.